Sunday, September 19, 2010

True Reason for Economic Crash

we are suffering by most accounts the worst economic malaise since the Great Depression. What caused it?

People bring up lots of little things, like legislation in the 90s and 00s including the repeal of Glass-Stiegel. But I have a different take...

As I recall, the economy was doing fine, with minor normal perturbations at worst until one day an announcement was made: the TV writers were going on strike. A monster show, Lost, was suddenly left to founder, along with all other shows.

All the people that depended on the production of all these shows started to shrink or go out of business. The advertising model of TV, which generated billions of direct and indirect revenue, stalled as people just stopped watching TV since there was nothing new to watch. Then the jets hit the towers and we had no resilience to resist the effects of that was too low to pull out.

We might have even weathered Bush's ill-conceived wars and tax cuts if our economy wasn't already on its knees.

A year or so went by. There was no possibility of bringing back most of the shows that were once mainstays, even Lost was...lost. (Surprisingly, it lives on in special weekend daytime reruns that seem freshened up with new unknown content.)

But the damage to the economy had been done and the trickle down of the death of prosperity was an unstoppable juggernaut. In fact, TV numbers still haven't come back up.

I think there's a very strong argument to be made that our economy was dealt a death blow not just by 9-11, by this one simple situation: the TV writers' strike. And I don't think anybody else has suggested this, but i think it has validity.

Friday, March 26, 2010

World Shift Anomaly

In my early days as browser guy, I would hear secretaries saying stuff like, "...oh...it's on NetEscape" You could tell she didn't know the had said it wrong.

It goes without saying the web is a game-changer. as easy as it is to use, everyone had to learn at least something to use it. Since it's spread over the world like wildfire, a graph of intelligence of the species would have to show an eye-catching, rarely seen jump during a really short time, say 1995-2005.

When you think about it, this hasn't really happened often; one would expect the rest of the graph mostly showing a more random lazy long-term pattern on this chart, interspersed with these discontinuities probably based on some environmental challenge or change.

In far, I'd expect that more of these bumps were reactive, like "Uh oh it's getting colder...", than proactive, like the integration of the web into world culture.

The net alone has had such a profound effect on world culture that it probably induced people world-wide to seek knowledge about it, then from it, which they gained perhaps 2 pts on their respective standard IQ tests just from becoming involved in the net. There's a lot to be said about this: the psychology of it is fascinating, and it's all based on the strangely universal need to communicate.

What is yet to come as a consequence of this profound shift in the outlook of billions of people all at once?

Trippy.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

the most fascinating thing

1. death. that's pretty obvious but when you're making a list, you need to be complete or people just wonder why you left out whatever you left out.

In my most recent cogitation, it occurs to me that number one is so elusive as to make conjecture about it vaporous, pointless. But that's why this is the only list in the world in which the most important item is number two!

number two: that there are others with individuality, self-awareness and private intent, where "private" means that it is unique and exclusively attached to a given other. I am like them, but not exactly.

everything in human experience operates in this space, and the greatest interest to be gained is in being conscious of it.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

The Inevitability of Death

Just listened to an interview (on NPR's To The Best Of Our Knowledge-link may not last) with Aubrey du Grey, chief scientist of The Methuselah Foundation, who believes that we have within our near-future medical grasp the indefinite postponement of death, making possible lifespans of the same kind: indefinite. He figures we'll have this capability, which he expresses as a complete understanding of the mechanical systems of the body, within 30 years. He likens humans to vintage cars or airplanes: as long as their systems are kept running they keep running.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey

I have felt this to be true for several years, that science will ultimately "see God" if He is there.

High-Level Brain Functions

I have noticed over my 53 years that the brain doesn't always work as smoothly or efficiently as we mostly suspect if does.

Over the years, I believe the brain adapts shortcuts over the years so that repetitive common processing tasks are executed in a way that requires less work from the brain, and thus speeds them up. It's my feeling that we are evolved mostly to save energy, so we have evolved this to save energy, not time.

The reason I'm thinking about this is that i recently "caught" myself, I was going through the common task of deciding whether I was in favor of something for good reason or if i was against it. If it's a hot issue my brain usually kicks something back almost instantly, but if the issue is not quite so hot I can sometimes observe my brain and noting the processing steps it goes through, predictably, in established sequence.

So, in order to decide if I agreed, I asked my brain to tell me if it had any memories of me agreeing with this concept, and if it was my latest memory on the subject.

My brain churned, essentially replied "Memories found, now retrieving memories..." at which point I commanded my brain to break out of the process, because I was satisfied simply to know if I agreed with this concept, I wasn't in a position where I needed to defend my view or explain it.

So there must be a "controller" brain, usually the same as the one we hear talking to us in our "interior dialogues"...and it monitors activity and results in real time and works to save effort by evaluating whether the intent of the current query has been exercised.

Well, at least I have it. Maybe I am an alien.